USD/RUB - Live Rate, Forecast, News and Analysis

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Author: cytpoway121 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=2202709
submitted by cytpoway to Crypto_General [link] [comments]

The sanctions paradox, With Russia's energy exports denominated in USD and their state budget in RUB help me understand how sanctions are really going to have any effect on their government reddit.

I do a bit of forex trading in my spare time as a hobby and after trying to figure out have we hit the bottom on the rouble yet I was left thinking things can't really get to bad for the Russian state budget and it's really only their citizens that are going to be left feeling the pinch, Just hear me out and fell free to correct my thesis.
So anyway Russia typically prices it's oil and gas contracts in USD thanks to the current "petrodollar" standard in energy contracts. The vast majority of their income comes through energy exports and they get paid in USD.
They can now get 46 roubles for every dollar of oil sold compared to this time last year as a result of the 36% year on year decline in the value of RUB vs USD which means their many of their obligations and public sector wages also declined 36%.
In other words this is going to screw ordinary Russian worker but the declining rouble is going to have little to no effect on the Russian government's ability to balance the books and ironically makes it easier for them to pay pensions/benefits/public sector wages
Now the one thing that is going to hurt them in the short term is the decline in oil prices since 40% of their exports are crude oil but Russia has been running a huge trade surplus in recent years and even with sanctions and lower oil prices this continues to be the case presently.
Oct 10, 2014
Russia’s trade surplus widened in August as President Vladimir Putin banned food imports from the U.S. and some of its allies.
The surplus was $15.8 billion, up 12 percent from a year earlier, the central bank in Moscow said today on its website. The median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was $16.1 billion. Imports decreased 12 percent to $25.1 billion and exports fell 3.7 percent to $40.9 billion.
Thing is when it comes to a trade war cash is king and Russia seems to have no problem covering it's obligations as regards imports. Compare that to Ukraine on the other hand who's declining currency and increasing trade defect mean it needs foreign aid just to pay for the day to day goods it's importing.
In short I cant find any credible economic threat that the west poses to Russia that doesn't come back to bite them in the ass themselves, lower oil prices are going to have a blowback effect on Us shale and Canadian tar sands production of which many require $80 a barrel prices just to be profitable.
Anyway I hope you appreciate my analysis, I did this mainly for myself as I opened a short position on the rouble back in March when the central bank was still intervening to support the price but now that it's stopped and the rouble has been allowed to float I'm pretty much going to close my position unless there is something I'm seriously overlooking here.
Sources:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/balance-of-trade http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUchart http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/russia-august-trade-surplus-rises-as-imports-decline-on-food-ban.html
submitted by Ididpotato to UkrainianConflict [link] [comments]

A couple of noob questions

I've started learning about ForEx about a week ago. Fundamentally, it makes sense, but I do have some questions regarding the practical side of things.
  1. Suppose I've traded x USD for 100 EUR through Oanda. Do I now possess y EUR? As in, can I tell Oanda that I want 100 actual euros wired to my bank account? If this is the case, can Or is my ownership of the 100 EUR an abstraction?
  2. Suppose the JPY is doing really well relative to EUR. I only have USD. Suppose the USD is tanking hard, relative to EUR but somewhat stable to JPY. I can trade USD for JPY, trade JPY for EUR, and then trade EUR for USD and make a gain in capital, granted the spreads work out. Is this correct or am I totally missing something?
  3. Certain currencies are only traded in relation to one other currency on the ForEx (USD/RUB, for example). Is that right, or is there a way that I could trade RUB directly for EUR, for example?
  4. Suppose I end up with a good amount of JPY, but the Yen begins to have a net fall for a week relative to all major currencies. Is it possible to take the Yen I have and use it to trade stock on the TYO until the currency begins to increase in value?
Thanks in advance! As I said, I'm very new to ForEx and I'd want to be crystal clear on the basics before I start to work on a demo account - I'm not even considering using live money at this point.
submitted by 6061 to Forex [link] [comments]

My 2015 savings plan... (what do you think?)

Hi there,
Not so long ago, I've met cryptocurrencies and I like the idea a lot. I'm a bitcoin supporter and I think it makes a good long term investment (although I know it is not it's main purpose to be an investment vehicle but rather an exchange method/currency for the future).
Currently I'm making what I call "extra money" each month (around $200 USD I guess)... I know it is not a lot, but it's money I can save without affecting my economy. The thing is, over the years this money has been spent into banal things and for this 2015 I would like to make things differently, this is my idea:
Of those (monthly) $200 USD, I would like to put 90% into Bitcoin and 10% into Yandex.Money (RUB) each month to diversify my savings. Now, besides that money I'm talking about, someone owes me like $1,000 USD (dunno if they'll ever get paid or not) but if they are, I wanna buy YNDX Stock with them (I've never bought stock before, I'm living in México, any advice?) OR maybe enter into the FOREX market by buying either JPY/EUGBP/CNY
(Quick note: any other ideas about where can I invest those $1,000 USD if they ever get paid to me?, I've already discarded silver and gold coins because I find them hard to trade/exchange in México in order to get MXN).
Finally I'm also planning to recieve income from paid advertising on my website, and if that's successful I want to keep that income in MXN in my personal savings account.
The reason I made this savings plan is because I'm living "out of the system" (I'm an entrepreneur, not working in any company besides my emerging startup) and I want to start securing my future by having a savings/retirement fund available for when I'm older.
What do you think of my ideas? Do you have any other advice for me?
P.S. Yes, I know even in the bitcoin website they suggest that bitcoin is way to volatile to put your "life savings" into it, so that's why I'm going to experiment with my money in 2015 and see how much "financial performance" I get out of this new "bitcoin centric" plan, but do you have any beforehand forecast?
submitted by Jmlevick to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

My 2015 savings plan... (what do you think?) [cross-posted in /r/Bitcoin]

Hi there, Not so long ago, I've met cryptocurrencies and I like the idea a lot. I'm a bitcoin supporter and I think it makes a good long term investment (although I know it is not it's main purpose to be an investment vehicle but rather an exchange method/currency for the future). Currently I'm making what I call "extra money" each month (around $200 USD I guess)... I know it is not a lot, but it's money I can save without affecting my economy. The thing is, over the years this money has been spent into banal things and for this 2015 I would like to make things differently, this is my idea: Of those (monthly) $200 USD, I would like to put 90% into Bitcoin and 10% into Yandex.Money (RUB) each month to diversify my savings. Now, besides that money I'm talking about, someone owes me like $1,000 USD (dunno if they'll ever get paid or not) but if they are, I wanna buy YNDX Stock with them (I've never bought stock before, I'm living in México, any advice?) OR maybe enter into the FOREX market by buying either JPY/EUGBP/CNY (Quick note: any other ideas about where can I invest those $1,000 USD if they ever get paid to me?, I've already discarded silver and gold coins because I find them hard to trade/exchange in México in order to get MXN). Finally I'm also planning to recieve income from paid advertising on my website, and if that's successful I want to keep that income in MXN in my personal savings account. The reason I made this savings plan is because I'm living "out of the system" (I'm an entrepreneur, not working in any company besides my emerging startup) and I want to start securing my future by having a savings/retirement fund available for when I'm older. What do you think of my ideas? Do you have any other advice for me? P.S. Yes, I know even in the bitcoin website they suggest that bitcoin is way to volatile to put your "life savings" into it, so that's why I'm going to experiment with my money in 2015 and see how much "financial performance" I get out of this new "bitcoin centric" plan, but do you have any beforehand forecast?
submitted by Jmlevick to investing [link] [comments]

Questions about Ichimoku Clouds

I've been reading this week a lot about Ichimoku clouds. I am incredibly new to the Forex world, but I cannot seem to find anyone really using this outside of Japan.
From what I can tell at a quick glance is that it seems to capture a lot of the price movements. For example, in the USD/RUB charts you can see the moving averages cross about July 14th high above the cloud. It looks like if you bought in on the next price breakout on the 17th you would have caught the USD gain on the Ruble. I know the Ruble's fall is mostly due to oil prices and geopolitics right now, so I am also looking at GBP/USD at the beginning of this year. The averages cross in mid-February, catching the fall, and then releasing at the end of May before it recovers. Am I wrong in this, and, if so, how?
This is the reading I've been using
TL;DR:
Two questions regarding Ichimoku clouds:
Thanks for the help!
submitted by drunk_journalist to investing [link] [comments]

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